PGA Betting Guide for the BMW Championship
Picking winners of a golf tournament is hard. Doing it consistently is downright impossible. But finding value is something all bettors must practice in order to give themselves the best chance to make hay when the day finally comes that they ping a champion.
Below we will cover the best bets for the BMW Championship based on current form, course fit, and, of course, the value of their odds over at Golf odds. In the penultimate event of the season, only the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings are invited to tee it up at the BMW, which means there is no cut and more than 25% of the field is in play for a top-20 finish.
With less than half the competition of a normal Tour event, the world's top golfers have better true odds of winning, but they do not get priced shorter than normal.
For example, at THE NORTHERN TRUST there were 121 golfers, and favorite Brooks Koepka was offered at +850. This week, in a field of 70 golfers, Koepka is the favorite and offered at...the exact same price.
Take advantage of this value, but also consider sprinkling small wagers on some long shots. Just like the favorites are offered at the same price despite having fewer golfers to beat, plenty of golfers who have played well enough to get to this point are still offered at +10000 or longer.
For more info on Medinah Country Club's No. 3 Course and the key stats this week, check out this week's course primer.
At the Top
Koepka and Rory McIlroy (+850 each) - The co-favorites are both fine bets this week, as this long course aligns with their strengths off the tee and on approach with their long irons. McIlroy pops more in the stats, as he is first in just about everything -- strokes gained: off the tee, birdies or better gained, par 3s between 200-225 yards, and bogeys avoided. Koepka, on the other hand, is only the top golfer in the world and a winning machine. The field is deep and the strength on Tour has gone to an entire new level this year, but these two have been the clear top-two for the season and deserve your consideration this week.
Justin Rose (+1800) - Rose won at Torrey Pines earlier this year, and aside from a handful of events spoiled by a bad round or two, he has been rock solid all year. He heats up this time of year, and even though they were at different courses, he has back-to-back runner ups at the BMW Championship leg of the Playoffs. Clearly, he has a thing for small field events, and with wins and high finishes at long courses throughout his career, it is easy to see the fit. As the second-highest points scorer for the European team at the 2012 Ryder Cup, he was a key part of the Miracle at Medinah comeback victory.
Value Spots
Bryson DeChambeau (+3700) - Bryson got roasted on Twitter for his slow play over a putt this week, and while the pile-on led to DeChambeau's lively press conference addressing the criticism, the best revenge would be adding another Playoff victory to his resume. The unbreakable form he showed this time last year escaped him in the spring, but he rebounded with back-to-back top 10s at the Travelers Championship and 3M Open before going into another lull over his past few events. It feels like he's close, and while the controversy at Liberty National certainly had an effect on him, he still managed to finish T24. The books showed they won't hesitate to price him up with the favorites if he shows signs of life, so it is worth jumping on him at this price while you can.
Francesco Molinari (+5000) - The 2018 Open Champion has had a forgettable second half of 2019, and it is easy to forget he won at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and flubbed away a green jacket with a water ball on the back nine at Augusta in the first half of the year. Molinari is not quite as long off the tee as you'd like, but as he showed during his torching stretch last year, he can pick apart any course. His Sunday 66 at The Open to climb all the way to T11 was reminiscent of his blazing Sunday at Bay Hill, and at 50/1, Molinari is a tremendous value.
Long Shots
Rory Sabbatini (+9000) - Sabbatini has done everything except win this year, and his current form has held up long enough to warrant investment. In this loaded field, he is 11th on the entire Tour in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds, fitted amidst golfers offered at half his price (or higher) in the betting markets this week.
Si Woo Kim (+15000) - Kim is notable for his propensity to either flame out spectacularly or storm the top five on any given week. He has not paid off a full win since his triumph at the 2017 PLAYERS, but he showed that week that he has no fear of strong fields and that when his game clicks, he can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone.
Max Homa (+26000) and Nate Lashley (+32000) - Two winners this year who are offered at significantly longer odds than other first time champions whose only advantage is proximity in time and space. J.T. Poston and Dylan Frittelli (each +15000) have had just as much inconsistency as either Homa or Lashley, yet the latter pair come at signficantly longer odds. Homa's win came at Quail Hollow, which like Medinah was one of the longest par-adjusted courses on the schedule this year. Lashley's win came at another Midwest course in Michigan.
