GOLF

Finding Betting Value in the 2018 FedEx Cup Championship

The start of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is exactly three months away. Which golfers are valuable bets to win this year's $10 million prize?

The Masters, The PLAYERS and 30 other tournaments are now in the rearview, and the 2018 PGA Tour season is nearly 70% of the way home.

But with just one major decided, it really feels like the season has yet to hit full speed. There are 14 regular season tournaments remaining, including a trio of prestigious majors in the U.S. Open, The Open Championship and PGA Championship.

For one second, though, just forget about the past and the future and consider where the season is at. The Fort Worth Invitational (formerly known as the Dean & DeLuca Invitational) is now underway, and while it doesn't come with the hype of the Masters or the PLAYERS, it carries a prize of nearly $1.3 million and -- now fast forward back to the future -- 500 FedEx Cup points.

The money is great for wallets, but the FedEx points are working toward a much bigger prize -- a $10 million check to be awarded at East Lake Golf Club on September 23.

In addition to the remaining 14 regular season events, there will be four playoff tournaments (2,000 points each), including the TOUR Championship. And at the conclusion, whoever has the most points (regular season and playoffs combined) takes home the cash and the Cup.

The FedEx Playoffs are just 12 years old, but as with any single tournament, you have the ability to throw down some shekels on your favorite to win it all. The process is certainly more complicated with the points system and a series of cuts within the playoff events.

Nonetheless, this should help to simplify the process and point you toward some undervalued golfers in Vegas.

Vegas Odds

First, let's take a look at WestGate SuperBook's current odds (as of May 21) and how they stack up to the odds from January 2, the start of the calendar year.

Sorted by current betting odds, here are the top 71.

Golfer January 2 Odds May 21 Odds Difference
Justin Thomas 1500 900 -600
Rory McIlroy 1200 1000 -200
Jordan Spieth 1100 1000 -100
Dustin Johnson 700 1000 300
Jason Day 2000 1200 -800
Jon Rahm 1000 1200 200
Rickie Fowler 1000 1200 200
Tiger Woods 4000 1400 -2600
Justin Rose 1500 1400 -100
Phil Mickelson 10000 2000 -8000
Patrick Reed 4000 2000 -2000
Paul Casey 2000 2000 0
Bubba Watson 10000 2500 -7500
Henrik Stenson 4000 3000 -1000
Hideki Matsuyama 1500 3000 1500
Tony Finau 8000 5000 -3000
Marc Leishman 5000 5000 0
Patrick Cantlay 3000 5000 2000
Alex Noren 50000 6000 -44000
Aaron Wise 50000 6000 -44000
Tommy Fleetwood 50000 6000 -44000
Brian Harman 25000 6000 -19000
Webb Simpson 15000 6000 -9000
Brooks Koepka 2000 6000 4000
Bryson DeChambeau 12500 8000 -4500
Kevin Kisner 8000 8000 0
Sergio Garcia 8000 8000 0
Charley Hoffman 5000 8000 3000
Matt Kuchar 5000 8000 3000
Xander Schauffele 5000 8000 3000
Daniel Berger 4000 8000 4000
Patton Kizzire 15000 10000 -5000
Ian Poulter 25000 12500 -12500
Brendan Steele 15000 12500 -2500
Pat Perez 15000 12500 -2500
Si Woo Kim 15000 12500 -2500
Zach Johnson 15000 12500 -2500
Ollie Schniederjans 20000 15000 -5000
Gary Woodland 15000 15000 0
Jason Dufner 15000 15000 0
Jimmy Walker 15000 15000 0
Kevin Chappell 15000 15000 0
Russell Henley 15000 15000 0
Ryan Moore 15000 15000 0
Austin Cook 12500 15000 2500
Adam Scott 6000 15000 9000
Billy Horschel 25000 20000 -5000
Keegan Bradley 25000 20000 -5000
Adam Hadwin 20000 20000 0
Bill Haas 15000 20000 5000
Branden Grace 15000 20000 5000
Emiliano Grillo 15000 20000 5000
Peter Uihlein 15000 20000 5000
Brandt Snedeker 10000 20000 10000
Louis Oosthuizen 10000 20000 10000
Charles Howell III 25000 25000 0
Jamie Lovemark 25000 25000 0
Bud Cauley 20000 25000 5000
Kevin Na 20000 25000 5000
Kyle Stanley 20000 25000 5000
J.B. Holmes 15000 25000 10000
Francesco Molinari 25000 30000 5000
Jhonattan Vegas 25000 30000 5000
Russell Knox 25000 30000 5000
Charl Schwartzel 15000 30000 15000
Jim Furyk 50000 50000 0
Patrick Rodgers 25000 50000 25000
Grayson Murray 20000 50000 30000
Graham DeLaet 25000 100000 75000
Hudson Swafford 25000 100000 75000
Wesley Bryan 25000 100000 75000


Within the 71, we get three golfers -- Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren and Aaron Wise -- who weren't even listed back in January. Assigned +50000 odds (the maximum listed prior to this year's first tournament) to provide better context, these three have obviously climbed the board.

Outside of that trio, Brian Harman, Ian Poulter, Webb Simpson, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are the five biggest climbers to show up on both lists. At the bottom of the list, Graham DeLaet, Hudson Swafford and Wesley Bryan are in a three-way tie for the biggest faller.

Last year's winner and golf's new number-one, Justin Thomas, has increased his odds and leads a four-man group of favorites, with Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and previous World number-one Dustin Johnson all nipping at his heels.

FedEx Cup Standings

Vegas' favorites are just that, but the leaders are the ones with the most FedEx points, plain and simple.

So, through the AT&T Byron Nelson, here are where things stand in comparison to where they were to start the year (sorted by current ranking).

Golfer January 2 Rank May 21 Rank Difference
Justin Thomas 7 1 -6
Jason Day 56 2 -54
Phil Mickelson 28 3 -25
Patton Kizzire 1 4 3
Patrick Reed 95 5 -90
Bubba Watson 172 6 -166
Dustin Johnson 25 7 -18
Webb Simpson 89 8 -81
Jon Rahm 151 9 -142
Tony Finau 9 10 1
Justin Rose 6 11 5
Paul Casey 33 12 -21
Marc Leishman 13 14 1
Pat Perez 2 15 13
Patrick Cantlay 5 17 12
Aaron Wise 73 18 -55
Brendan Steele 4 20 16
Bryson DeChambeau 38 21 -17
Rickie Fowler 16 22 6
Alex Noren 147 23 -124
Brian Harman 18 24 6
Ian Poulter 102 26 -76
Austin Cook 3 27 24
Gary Woodland 69 28 -41
Jordan Spieth 81 31 -50
Charles Howell III 22 32 10
Si Woo Kim 29 33 4
Xander Schauffele 39 34 -5
Rory McIlroy 81 35 -46
Billy Horschel 81 36 -45
Kevin Kisner 70 38 -32
Jimmy Walker 81 41 -40
Keegan Bradley 15 42 27
Henrik Stenson 25 43 18
Emiliano Grillo 61 44 -17
Adam Hadwin 152 45 -107
Tommy Fleetwood 114 48 -66
Kyle Stanley 34 50 16
Tiger Woods 81 51 -30
Ryan Moore 51 54 3
Zach Johnson 43 55 12
Jason Dufner 202 58 -144
Branden Grace 57 59 2
Charl Schwartzel 120 61 -59
Matt Kuchar 107 64 -43
Kevin Na 138 65 -73
Peter Uihlein 40 66 26
Kevin Chappell 139 67 -72
Jamie Lovemark 59 68 9
Ollie Schniederjans 60 69 9
Grayson Murray 87 71 -16
Russell Knox 75 73 -2
Hideki Matsuyama 66 76 10
Bud Cauley 41 79 38
Daniel Berger 127 81 -46
Patrick Rodgers 62 86 24
Louis Oosthuizen 250 90 -160
Russell Henley 122 92 -30
Adam Scott 125 94 -31
Charley Hoffman 113 95 -18
Jhonattan Vegas 92 96 4
Brooks Koepka 25 98 73
Sergio Garcia 250 100 -150
Francesco Molinari 170 115 -55
Brandt Snedeker 149 125 -24
J.B. Holmes 198 131 -67
Bill Haas 117 143 26
Hudson Swafford 97 151 54
Jim Furyk 250 158 -92
Wesley Bryan 121 166 45
Graham DeLaet 68 167 99


Due to playing limited or no contests through the January 2 date, Louis Oosthuizen, Sergio Garcia and Jim Furyk were all outside the top-250, so their movement comes with a grain of salt. However, the same can't be said for Watson, who has put together two wins, a top-5 at the Masters and a top-10 through 10 appearances in the new year.

Jason Dufner and Jon Rahm have both followed Watson in his climb up the points rankings, and Noren has made his way into the top-25 as well. Meanwhile, Graham DeLaet, Brooks Koepka and Hudson Swafford have all dropped more than 50 spots, with only Swafford doing so without injuries as an excuse.

Once again, Thomas is at the top, having jumped six spots with 10 top-25s, including a win at The Honda Classic and a second-place finish at the WGC-Mexico. He's 341 points clear of Jason Day.

Pinpointing Value

The movement over time tells us which players have played their way up or down the rankings, by both Vegas' standards and the FedEx Cup standings. But where do they differ, and what can we take away from this as far as finding valuable bets for the stretch run?

Let's take a long look at the current Cup rankings in comparison to Vegas' ranks, by today's odds (click to enlarge).

FedEx Cup Ranks vs. Vegas Odds Rank


The trendline you see is statistically significant, and what that tells us is that players above the line have higher actual rankings than they do Vegas-implied rankings. Within that group, DeLaet (167th), Swafford (151st), Furyk (158th), Wesley Bryan (166th) and Bill Haas (143rd) make for the easiest stay-away spots, given their respective points deficits.

The opposite goes for golfers below the line. They're headlined by Patton Kizzire (4th), Webb Simpson (8th), Pat Perez (15th), Brendan Steele (20th) and Charles Howell III (32nd). With double-digit differentials (Cup minus Vegas ranks), all but Simpson (+6000) are at +10000 or longer odds, so they represent some nice value bets. And history is on their side, as the last three Cup winners have come from the top-40, with only two eventual winners outside that mark at this point in the season (through Byron Nelson).

As for the golden triangle you see above, that consists of three familiar names both inside the top-6 in points and inside the top-13 in Vegas odds. Currently 3rd in the race for the FedEx Cup, Phil Mickelson is tied for 10th with +2000 odds. He shares the same figure as that of Masters champion Patrick Reed, who is 5th and within 33 points of Mickelson. And to round it out, Bubba Watson is right behind Reed in sixth, with the potential for an even higher return at +2500.

Given the fact that 5 of the previous 11 winners ranked 5th or better in the year-to-date standings to this same point, it's hard to argue against a Mickelson or Reed ticket. And the same goes for Thomas and Day at one and two.

Although you would get smaller returns -- +900 for Thomas and +1200 for Day -- both studs fall under the trendline. For Thomas, it would mean a second straight $10 million payday, but for Day, it would be his first time hoisting the trophy at East Lake.

Who will ultimately take the cake? Only time will tell.