Daily Fantasy Golf Course Primer: John Deere Classic
With The Open looming next week, we get a bit of a letdown field in the John Deere Classic. It happens.
But with DFS, there's always an angle to exploit. At TPC Deere Run, expect plenty of birdies, as the course historically yields the most birdies among par 71s on tour.
Who's got good form here? What stats matter? Let's break it all down.
Course and Tournament Overview
TPC Deere Run is a par 71, spanning 7,268 yards. The course grades out as one of the easiest each year, in terms of strokes relative to par.
| Year | Difficulty Rank | Avg O/U Par |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 39 | -1.104 |
| 2015 | 43 | -1.352 |
| 2014 | 42 | -1.236 |
| 2013 | 36 | -1.603 |
| 2012 | 42 | -1.451 |
| 2011 | 40 | -1.392 |
| 2010 | 43 | -1.545 |
| 2009 | 43 | -1.244 |
| 2008 | 39 | -0.931 |
| 2007 | 42 | -0.771 |
Dang. That should lead to some big FanDuel totals this week.
Recent Tournament History
Ryan Moore won the 2016 John Deere, besting Ben Martin. Whee Kim and Morgan Hoffmann tied for third. Kelly Kraft, Johnson Wagner, and Ricky Barnes were T5.
Jordan Spieth won in 2015 (and 2013). Tom Gillis was second, with Zach Johnson and Danny Lee tying for third. Wagner, Chris Stroud, and Justin Thomas tied for fifth.
Brian Harman won in 2014, and -- again -- Spieth won in 2013. Johnson won in 2012. Steve Stricker reeled off three straight wins from 2009 to 2011.
Key Stats
Strokes gained: tee to green and strokes gained: putting are always worth weighting -- same with birdie-or-better rate. But the past five events at the Greenbrier indicate the following stats as the ones to focus on most.
| Key Stats for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run |
|---|
| Strokes Gained: Tee to Green |
| Birdie or Better Rate |
| Strokes Gained: Approach the Green |
| Par 4 Scoring |
| Scrambling |
We want birdies each week, but this week in particular we need guys who can capitalize on a birdie-friendly course. History suggests that strokes gained: tee to green and birdie or better rate have correlated strongly with success here.
However, we should give extra weight to strokes gained: approach this week, according to the past 10 years of data at TPC Deere Run.
Par 4 scoring and scrambling have also correlated well with performance in that stretch at this course.
Course History Studs
Stricker won from 2009 to 2011 and was T5 in 2012, T10 in 2013, and T11 in 2014. He also finished T35 in 2015 and T52 in 2016. That's eight straight cuts and an average finish of 14.5.
Zach Johnson has form that nearly contends with Stricker's. Since 2008, Johnson was T68, T2, T21, T3, 1, T2, 2, T3, and T34 at the John Deere Classic.
Ryan Moore, last year's winner, was T8 in 2012, T22 in 2013, T7 in 2014, and T24 in 2015.
Chad Campbell didn't play here in 2016 but has an average finish of 25.5 in eight tries since 2008 (T7, T15, T34, T56, T36, T15, T13, and T28).
The scorching hot Kyle Stanley also has good form at TPC Deere Run. In 2009, he was T34 and didn't play in 2010. Since then, he was 2, T19, cut, T63, T18, and T22.
Johnson Wagner missed three of four cuts from 2007 to 2010, but he was T7 in 2014 and T5 in 2015 and 2016.
