Jeremy Lin & Some All-Star Snubs
Check out our updated Player rankings through today or on SLAM. Two of the biggest snubs for the All-Star game may be Ryan Anderson and Tyson Chandler. Anderson and Chandler rank 3rd and 4th in our NERD rankings respectively. Ryan Anderson is an efficiency king, and one of the primary reasons the Magic are still in the playoff hunt. His 87 three-pointers are nice, but his absurd 4.4% turnover rate is even better. That is best in the League among players with at least 700 minutes. Tyson Chandler continues to be the most efficient offensive player in the League, scoring 1.36 points per possession. His usage rate is still low at 12.6%, but hes not taking bad shots. The proof is in his absurd 70.2% field goal percentage.
Despite his beastly play, Jeremy Lin’s NERD has actually decreased by 2 points since last week. Although he’s been playing well, nothing will look as good as compared to his 38-point game against the Lakers. The best takeaway from the Lin-sanity so far might actually be his 51.5% assist rate. That means that while he is on the floor he assists over half of all field goals the Knicks make. We’ll just have to wait to see if that continues once Melo returns.
Corey Maggette, who recently returned from injury, ranks dead last in NERDiness at -17.3. Maggette is scoring just 0.86 points per possession while using almost 27% of the Bobcats available possessions. He is 5 for 21 from downtown which results in an effective field goal percentage of just 36%.
The biggest riser this week was Jason Richardson. The former 2-time Slam Dunk champion is 18 for 28 from three-point range over the last week, and had a huge 31-point game in which he went 9 for 11 from downtown. JRich is averaging 19 points per game over his last four, and that kind of three-point shooting will always give you a big boost in the NERD rankings.
Lin-sane in the Membrane
Check out our updated Player rankings through today or on SLAM. Harvard grad Jeremy Lin has been killing it for the Knicks over his first few games. His NERD jumped 6.9 points—higher than any other player this week. Lin is shooting 52.9% from the field and has an elite 1.17 points per possession while using over 28% of the Knicks possessions. Therein lies the problem, however. When Melo returns, the Knicks will already have two players who use more than 25% of the Knicks possessions. If Lin can scale back his usage rate by taking fewer (but better) shots and act more as a complement and facilitator to Amar’e and Melo, the Knicks could actually have a winning combination.
Dwight Howard jumps into the Top 10 after a great week, increasing his NERD from 8.8 to 13.0. Howard is No. 2 in the League in minutes played, behind only Kobe, and leads the League with 15.4 rebounds per game. Howard continues to be efficient despite his worst offensive season to date. He scores a mundane 1.06 points per possession, mostly thanks to his career-worst 49.0% free throw percentage and just a 56.6% field goal percentage—which may not seem bad, but it his his lowest since 2005-06.
The Nuggets have been struggling without the help of Danilo Gallinari. In fact, each of the four players who decreased the most in NERD since last week are Nuggets: Ty Lawson (-3.8), Nene (-3.4), Al Harrington (-3.2) and Rudy Fernandez (-3.1). Gallinari was by far the most efficient scorer on the team, scoring 1.18 points per possession. What the Nuggets are missing most is Gallinari’s ability to get to the line: he shot 89.0% on 145 free throw attempts. That’s the best free throw percentage of any player with at least 110 free throw attempts this season.
Celtics Winning on D
Check out the full NERD rankings at numberFire or on SLAM. The Philadelphia 76ers continue to be the most efficient team in the League, taking down the Lakers last night, despite surrendering 21 offensive rebounds. They own the top defense in the League, allowing just 95.5 points per 100 possessions and turn the ball over less than any other team, losing the ball on just 10.5% of possessions.
The Boston Celtics increased their playoff odds by over 10% this past week and are currently on a four-game winning streak. It gets better: they play both the Bobcats and Raptors this week, in addition to the Lakers. The Celtics have stuck to their identity, ranking as the No. 2 defense in the League. Boston holds opponents to a measly 41.6% from the field, and with that defense, should find themselves in contention come May.
The Denver Nuggets took the biggest hit efficiency-wise this week, dropping -7.9 in NERD. The Nuggets have lost three straight and what’s more, they lost their most efficient and productive player in Danilo Gallinari. Scoring is down, as they dropped from best in the League to No. 4 , and Denver must continue to get to the line, where they rank third in free throws per field goal attempt. Look for Arron Afflalo to step up as a scorer in place of Gallinari; Afflalo is currently having his least efficient season to date, scoring just 1.03 points per possession (down from 1.23 last season).
The Dallas Mavericks have also lost three straight, including one to Cleveland most recently. As a result (and thanks to the currently ridiculous playoff race in the West), the defending champs’ playoff odds dropped from 85% to 70% in one week. Dallas will need to improve offensively, where they are slightly below average, to make it in the playoff hunt. The primary culprit may be Dirk Nowitzki, who is having his least efficient offensive season since his rookie year. He scores 1.06 points per possession, down from his career average of 1.17.
Lob City on the Rise
Our NERD team analytics have been updated, check them out here or on Slam. The Philadelphia 76ers are still No. 1. The Sixers own the best defense in the League, allowing just 94 points per 100 possessions, 8.5 points better than the League-average. Add in the lowest turnover percentage in the League at 11.1% and you have a team poised for success.
With three straight wins over big-time opponents (Oklahoma City, Denver, and Memphis) the Los Angeles Clippers have increased their chances of making the playoffs by 10% since last week. Despite popular opinion, the Clippers actually do a solid job taking care of the ball. They are tied for No. 4 in the League in turnover rate at 13.3% (League average is 14.3%). The Clippers are also tied for fourth in the league in effective field goal percentage, which includes the value of three-pointers, at 50.8%. It’s on the defensive side of the ball where Clippers struggle a bit—they foul opponents more than any other team except for the Warriors andRaptors—two teams with which you do not want to be grouped.
The New York Knicks continue their downward spiral, having lost three straight. As a result, their probability of making the playoffs has dropped another 24.6%, giving them about a one-in-five chance of seeing post-season action. The main reason for their decline is a lack of offensive efficiency. Amar’e Stoudemire is shooting a career-low 42.8%—his career average is 53.3%. His 0.96 points per possession is by far the lowest in his career as well. The only time he was close to that figure was in his rookie and sophomore years. Also, Toney Douglas is shooting an abysmal 32.3% while still using over a quarter of the Knicks’ possessions.
The Orlando Magic are in the midst of an embarrassing skid, and own the largest decrease in NERD since last week, dropping by 8. Since last Monday, the Magic are 1-5, suffering losses to bad teams (like the Hornets) and enormous comeback losses (like against Celtics). What’s more, Dwight Howard and company have scored under 70 points in three of those games, including a disgusting 56-point performance against Boston. For a team that was just recently the third-best offense in the League, the Magic now rank No. 19, scoring just 101.7 points per 100 possessions. The only bright spot is that thanks to Dwight Howard, they are still the best rebounding team in the league, securing 77.8% of available defensive rebounds.
ESPN Insider: Predicting Super Bowl XLVI
While media drama dominates right now in a Super Bowl rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, many of you are more concerned with predicting the matchup (and the props). Us too, so let’s dive in.
Offense
By now, everyone knows that the Patriots have an edge on offense, with their No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack and No. 6 opponent-adjusted running game. The effective passing does wonders for the rushing game, despite what conventional statistics may indicate: while they rank just 20th in rushing yards, the Patriots know when to run, and when they do, they do it efficiently. Their 47 percent run success rate is phenomenal, third in the NFL behind only the Eagles and Saints. The Giants, on the other hand, have the No. 30-ranked success rate, a mundane 37 percent.
Which teams outperformed or underperformed expectations in 2011? Although the Denver Broncos won eight games and made the playoffs, based on their actual efficiency numbers and production, they were expected to win only five or six games. It’s similar to Bill James’ Pythagorean calculation for baseball, except that, instead of runs, we’re looking at how a team performed statistically and extrapolating the expected record for a team given that performance. To put it a different way: Which teams should have had better or worse records, and what does that mean for next season?
There are numerous ways to outperform expectations, among them playing better toward the end of games, forcing a lot of turnovers and winning close games. On the flip side, a team underperforms in relation to expectations when it is on the opposite side of that coin. (See: Eagles, Philadelphia).
Read More: Top 5 Overperforming Teams | Top 5 Underperforming Teams
Grizz On The Rise: NBA Analytics Updates
If you missed last week’s analytics, you can check them out here. We are now about a quarter of the way through this short season and the Philadelphia 76ers are still playing at a ridiculous level, topping our team NERD rankings. The Heat, however, brought them down to earth a little this week and Philadelphia’s ranking should continue to fall. That being said, they still own a league-best +11.4 point differential and the top defense in the league, allowing under 95 points per 100 possessions. Spencer Hawes remains the most efficient player on the team; Hawes and teammate Elton Brand are tied for the second best defensive rating in the league (among players with at least 300 minutes) behind Omer Asik of the Bulls. They allow just 0.91 points per possession.
The aforementioned Bulls currently own the top record in the league at 15-3, and are doing so without the help of the injured reigning MVP, Derrick Rose. Rose ranks as the third most efficient player in the league, with a player NERD of +16.7. While his nightly 21 and 9 are certainly missed, the Bulls continue to perform at an elite level, owning the number three offense and number two defense in the league in terms of pure efficiency.
Big movers this week include the Memphis Grizzlies and Utah Jazz. The Grizz have won 6 straight, including an impressive 102-86 domination over the Bulls. Memphis increased their chances of making the playoffs by 9.3% since last week. Their top player has clearly been Marc Gasol, who ranks sixth in our player ratings with a NERD of 15.9.
The Jazz have won 4 of their last 5, and their playoff odds have increased by 17.2% as a result. Paul Millsap has been unbelievably efficient, scoring 1.2 points per possession while using almost a quarter of Utah’s possessions. It is tough to score 1.2 points per possession, let alone maintain that at a high usage rate.
Mickael Pietrus, Mike Conley, and John Wall have all dramatically improved their NERDiness since last week. Like Millsap, Pietrus is scoring 1.2 points per possession, mostly thanks to a 44.1% three-point shooting percentage. Wall still has a dismal -10.9 NERD, meaning if he played on an average team and played at the same level, that team would finish 11 games under .500 in an 82-game season. The difference, however, is that he would not have to take nearly as many shots and would have better players around him, since the Wizards are well below league-average. Wall is averaging 25.8 points, 8.3 assists, and 3.5 boards over the course of his last 4 games.
Should The Niners Have Kept The Punt?
Who would have thought that Ted Ginn Jr.’s absence might have made all the difference in the NFC championship game? Kyle Williams’ two fumbles on punt returns kept the Giants in the game and all but won it for them in OT. During the course of this 22-punt game, Jim Harbaugh was forced with a few 4th-down decisions. Earlier this year, Brian Burke wrote about Harbaugh’s decision to keep the 3 points after David Akers made a 55-yard field goal and the Cowboys were called for a 15-yard penalty. In the third quarter, down 10-7, the Niners were faced with a similar conundrum, this time with a punt. On 4th-and-6 from midfield, Andy Lee hits a beautiful punt the to the Giants’ 7-yard line. Justin Tuck is called for running into the kicker, but Harbaugh declines and takes the punt, pinning the Giants deep. But, was this the right decision?
Top Receivers of 2011
After a year of high-flying offensive performances, we have several break-out stars in the receiving top 10. First, and most notably, is the pair of tight ends, Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. This is the first time since 2000 that two tight ends finished in the top 10 and Gronk set the single season receiving NEP record for a tight end at +112.72, passing Antonio Gates. Other new guys include the salsa-dancing Victor Cruz and Jordy Nelson, who caught almost 71% of the balls thrown his way and added over a point per target!
And then there were four. The Patriots are the favorites to take home the Lombardi trophy, but at this point, it’s anyone’s game. The Pats dominate on offense, the Ravens and Niners dominate on defense, and Eli Manning is continuing his career year through the playoffs, getting hot at the right time. The highlight of the weekend doesn’t come from the Niners vs. Saints game (which was one of the most exciting playoff games in recent memory), but rather from the Patriots vs. Broncos game. Tom Brady unleashes a 48-yard punt on third down.
Overall: 22-13-1
Read More: Then There Were Four – Conference Championship Prediction